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ARISTOCRAT FY26 Tier two holding--poised for takeoff?

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  ARISTOCRAT FY26 RESULT – TIER 2 Holding A mixed bag for ALL, as it exits a significant portfolio reorganisation. Overall, the numbers were a little light against my estimates, with NPATA being 2% below my numbers. The negatives came in the newer businesses, Product Madness and the Interactive business, while the traditional casino floor gaming results were good. The framework I would like ALL, and several other portfolio holdings, to fit is as follows: revenue growth of MSD into a sizeable TAM, with operational leverage and market positioning that translates to HSD NPAT growth (margin expansion). These firms are usually leaders in their industry and can outspend their smaller competitors, leading to better products and market share gains. With a low reinvestment requirement, the capex required is well below the cash generated by the business that lends itself to ongoing share buybacks that drive LDD eps growth on a sustainable basis. From a portfolio point of view, gathering...
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VISA- TIER 1 HOLDING-FY26 Result analysis and a look at possible disruption

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 VISA- TIER 1 HOLDING-FY26 Result analysis and a look at possible disruption Firstly, we look at the numbers, then a run through the now rather long but variable list of potential disruption factors.  The high-level numbers continue to be outstanding. Revenues were 15% higher (3% better than my numbers), and NPAT +17% (4% above my numbers). My numbers are set months before the result and are not fine-tuned; I am interested in my ability to accurately forecast well in advance when I invest, not to pick a number for the result. EPS growth, revenues, and ROE are all outstanding.        The legacy business built on global digital transaction volumes continues to grow in a consistent but not spectacular fashion.      There is not much to say about these volumes, which tend to show modest cyclicality against a growing secular trend. However, there is an interesting change in the mix embedded in the numbers, which shows that Visa (and MA for that ma...
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REVIEWING PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION-WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM MY FRIEND – GEMINI

  REVIEWING PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION-WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM MY FRIEND – GEMINI Portfolio Construction (PC) is a different skill from security selection. Security selection is the identification of a security and weighing up whether the risk/return makes sense. PC is more multi-faceted. There is the security selection question, then the sizing question and then the interplay of that security with the rest of the portfolio, like factor or theme exposure. Unconscious bets in the portfolio can be dangerous and usually surface after the damage is done. That is, where unidentified correlations exist, they can bite severely and unexpectedly. Then there is the completely separate question of appropriately sizing stocks, factors and themes to optimise returns; that is a complex task in itself. Admittedly, I've always struggled with diversification for diversification's sake. If an asset is just there because it is different, that doesn’t make much sense to me. I want assets or stocks tha...
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TROUBLED TIMES? ASSESSING FINANCIAL AND STABILITY RISK IN THE STOCK HOLDINGS

  FUNDAMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS OF PORTFOLIO One of the reasons I am comfortable holding such a large percentage of my wealth in risk assets is that those companies are conservatively financed, and the underlying businesses are sound and will not fail if there is a large external shock. Here I look at the businesses, not the expected share price reactions, which could, and probably will, be significantly disassociated from the underlying business, at least for a while, if stress and uncertainty hit the market. With the bond market again under some weakness, with yields rising and areas of uncertainty in geopolitics and high worldwide debt levels, financial stability is worth another look. The first part of the analysis examines the traditional measures of debt. Of course, these measures of risk analysis are closely tied to the inherent volatility and riskiness of the underlying businesses. That is, what are appropriate debt levels for some businesses are not appropriate for other...
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LOV FY26 strong result--its a NA and European story

 LOV FY26 Result  My Take LOV results calls are often a bit unusual. LOV is really a private company masquerading as a public company. The management plays its cards close to its chest. Blundy controls the company, and management is aligned with him. That is good and bad; disclosure can be frustrating, and transparency can sometimes not be as clear as other companies. The positive is that management has a strong record of adding value, and there has been no real sign of conflict between the major shareholder and the outside shareholders. Incentives are aligned for profit growth. FY26 was one of the results where disclosure was not that great, despite the results being strong. Compared to my expectations, revenue was 1% better, and NPAT was 5% better. Revenues were +18%, and NPAT was +12%; note the difference. There were two negative inputs on NPAT. The first was the Jewells expansion. LOV lost $11m in the FH and provided no full-year numbers, but said losses were about t...
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HUB24 FY26 result - srtong result and the door could be opening again

 HUB FY26 Result commentary Strong result: 3% higher on my revenue estimate and 8% higher on NPAT. There was a noticeable slowdown in 2H net flows, which raised concerns. Overall revenues up 23%, costs 19% higher and underlying NPAT up 40%. Underlying adds back amortisation. Year-end platform FUM was $139B, a billion less than my estimate, showing the extent of the 2H slowdown, with earnings being better. The problem with net flows was identified as discretionary investments; super continues to remain resilient. Therefore, likely impact of the Budget or cash tightness, with investors moving to cash before making a decision what to do. If the funds permanently leave the platform, it is an issue for HUB. That remains to be seen, with the base case being investors will reinvest the funds at some stage. Overall net flows were $18.9B, but skewed to the FH. HUB ended the year with 9.9% market share, up 1.3% over the year. HUB sees itself going to a high-teens market share and has p...
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