Shawn Burns is Solve the Riddle

  MSFT FH26 MSFT reported revenues up 17%, Op Y up 21% and NPAT 23%, there was a positive Open AI MTM (omitted). These numbers were slightly better than my expectations. The segmental breakdown showed the software-based Productivity Processes up 16%, Intelligent Cloud, which houses Azure, up 29% and More Personal Computing, which is gaming and PC’s, up 6%. The consumer businesses continue to be a disappointment. An impairment charge was made against the gaming assets. The Activation Blizzard acquisition now looks ill-timed. As MSFT is a huge software business, there is no sign of AI disruption so far in these numbers. Apart from the consumer businesses, the results were good. MSFT highlighted the strategic position they are in to utilise and embed AI into their customer base and the progress made in selling Copilot into the base. The company mentioned that 15m paid seats of MSFT365 were in use. Although the trend is positive, will it be enough, and will execution continue? Ar...

 Note the disclaimer. i have not included any of the charts for these as they are a painful exercise to insert into this format. If anyone wants the full report, please ask.  LVMH 4Q 25 LVMH is a well-run company. Why do I say that? Firstly, we can see operational cost control with margins only falling from 24% to 23% 2024 to 2025 despite poor revenue growth. We can also see operational cash flow improving despite lower profits as working capital is managed well. We can also see value being added to acquisitions that benefit from being in the LVMH stable. Management appears genuine, longer-term planners and growers of the business. all good. They are also active in the management of the businesses and in the portfolio. Arnault has recently moved above 50% ownership. The result was unusually hit by FX volatility, being the relative strength of the EUR compared to third currencies. FX is hard to predict, and we can take that as an uncontrollable. There are issues with the ...

  REPORT ON TSMC FY25 Summary The numbers TSMC are producing are very good, even excellent. I have analysed them below. The overriding story here is that the AI investment chain needs to succeed. That means use cases and token usage need to keep growing to fill the DCs and, in turn, TSMS’s new FABs. Data centres are the largest growth area, AI use cases require more complex nodes that are being developed, and TSMC is planning huge capex into FABs to supply the chips that will be used to satisfy this demand. The semiconductor value chain is incredibly integrated. If AI progress pauses or slips and is shown to have issues being implanted and generating ROI, the whole chain will be impacted. There are portfolio consequences for this, and this correlation must be considered. My base case is that AI will succeed, but there will be bumps in the road, maybe some large ones. Therefore, the overall exposure needs to be assessed for risk control. Notes from FY25 results. Main Point...

  ANOTHER LOOK AT THE GROWTH SELL-OFF Background My basic investing thesis revolves around backing companies that can add assets and maintain a high ROE. Adding assets while maintaining a high return propels eps higher and with it the SP. The maths is simple, the execution is not, management and investing. I do like frameworks, especially those that win, and if you can pick a company that adds assets and holds returns, while buying at a reasonable price, you will do very well. The hard part is picking those companies that can maintain returns. Investing is not easy. I’ve found buying them at a reasonable price is the easier part (takes patience). However, in my case, I find this framework immeasurably easier than finding a company that is yet to prove itself as a quality company; I find that even harder. Brief recap of proof point I've done this to death before, so it will be brief. To prove the thesis, I picked 12 high ROE companies and 12 low ROE companies. The thinking h...

  THE GROWTH SELL-OFF and the influence of STYLE INVESTING After the results season, I wrote a piece on SM titled “Result Season Lessons for Me”. The upshot was what I saw as the early signs of a sector rotation and the potential underperformance of quality growth stocks, which comprise a significant portion of my portfolio. Below is a table comparing the performance of my benchmark to the pride of the fleet (IMO) of Australian quality growth stocks. As we can see, almost without exception, there is solid underperformance. My benchmark is equal-weighted, not market-cap-weighted, as I have previously covered the reasons for this approach. So what's going on here to get this widespread negativity? The concept of Style Investing is useful in this regard, imo. I first came across style investing when doing the CFA course from 1998-2000. There is a book by Bernstein called Style Investing if you want to go down the rabbit hole. In summary, it abstracts away from individual sto...

  LESSONS FROM 40 YEARS OF WEALTH ACCUMULATION Introduction I bought my first shares in November 1985, the 40th anniversary is here!!—here's what I learnt since, sometimes the hard way! Through the various cycles, events and characters, the journey and outcomes have been an intriguing, rewarding and interesting way to spend time. Below, I have attempted to avoid, firstly, pointing out stocks you should have bought, as there are no time machines. Unless there is a lesson to take forward, there is little point in hindsight stock wins. Secondly, I have tried to avoid motherhood statements and the stuff everyone has heard a thousand times before. Broad Lessons 1.       Stay in the game, protect your capital and never risk too much. To this point, I have never squeezed the lemon dry; of course, I may have increased my returns by doing so, but that would have increased the chance of oblivion. We can choose where we sit when considering the chances of ob...