Shawn Burns is Solve the Riddle

  SUMMARY OF ASML RESULTS CALL My thoughts Exceptionally strong results as ASML customers (eg TSMC), responding to huge demand from their customers (GOOG, AMZN, Meta etc). The rate of growth is better than expected as both memory and logic are now dramatically increasing volumes. Litho intensity is also increasing with more advanced nodes coming on, and lastly, installed base upgrades are increasing as customers want more from machines already in use. Installed base revenues as a percentage of the total equalled all-time records this half, and they are high margin.  Not long ago, there was some scepticism that litho intensity would increase and that memory demand would emerge and installed base demand would increase. Now all are firing.   ASML states that their customers are signing longer-term contracts and have visibility that was not there before, giving confidence to expand production that should last several years. ASML plans to add 30% capacity in 2027 for low...

REVIEW OF BENCHMARK PERFORMANCE and the 2027 Benchmark The benchmark for 2026 was a 395-stock equally weighted portfolio. The benchmark is split 61% Australian and 39% International. Importantly, since the benchmark is equally weighted, it biases against the size and maybe the success factors compared to traditional indices. To make up for this lowering in quality, the benchmark is curated to focus on profitable companies. Another customisation is to spread the benchmark so as not to be too reliant on the resources sector, which dominates the Australian index compared to the international indices. The addition of the international stocks is quality and growth-biased to counter the lower quality Australian segment. As a long-term quality investor, I am satisfied with the composition of the index as an appropriate benchmark to compare myself against. Finally, as I have covered many times before, it is equally weighted because I don’t think benchmarks should make stock calls, and includin...

this preso covers 1. the structural changes to the market and what long term valuation based investors should do about it 2. valution based investing is a longer term endeavour, that is correlation between value and share prices usually take a long time, short term no signal 3. what makes a great stock and an average stock 4. then a section on what can go wrong with buying a great business. including it destroys its ROE, inflation, AI risk 5. Case studies on COH and CSL 6. Choosing a fund manager 7. differences between retail investing as opposed to institutional investing 8. attempting to differentiate skill from risk and luck 9. lastly my largest holdings -no recommendations made i have no idea whther this works i have never uploaded a PowerPoint before!!  ok that didint work. Here are a few of the most important slides. different appraches to invseting, i am a valauiton based investor, i look at trend following and Passive as well in the preso. Note structural changes in the co...

 TECHONE FH26 RESULT A soft result with FH usually being the less profitable half, plus there were the Showcase costs of $9m and FX headwinds of $1.5 m. Importantly, TNE maintained its full-year guidance and stated that it is on track, which gives the market some confidence. A big second half is implied in my numbers. Full year guidance is for 18-20% PBT growth and 16-18% ARR growth. Longer term, over $1b ARR is expected by 2030, $600m currently. Management exuded confidence, stating that the business is seeing strong momentum and is confident in its prospects. AI feedback and adoption are surpassing expectations. They have clear visibility and will deliver the step up.  TNE maintains its strategy as a specialised software provider in the local government and education sectors, with large investment in R&D and by staying close to its customers, develops successful products. Competition is described as basic and generic. TNE discounted the loss of seats as a bear case...

  A review of 13Fs Q1 26 The 13Fs are regulatory requirements for certain fund managers that require disclosure of the US listed shares held in their funds. The disclosure is some 6 weeks after the close of the quarter. I have curated a list of 24 fund managers that most closely follow my style. That is, I am most likely to buy shares that they hold. Each fund is equally weighted and combined into a list that ranks the largest investments and movements from last quarter. (see below) Q1 26 was interesting in that it includes their reaction to the first wave of the SaaS apocalypse. Conclusion The managers have shown little stomach to take on AI risk so far. There were some signs, some quite tentative, in position-taking. The biggest moves are a large reduction in exposure to MSFT. The reasons, IMO, are that the MSFT Office suite is exposed to AI, it has also made less progress on models and chips, and finally, the OpenAI arrangement is raising more uncertainty. In fact, ele...