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REVIEWING THE PERFORMANCE OF THE 2026 BENCHMARK

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REVIEW OF BENCHMARK PERFORMANCE and the 2027 Benchmark The benchmark for 2026 was a 395-stock equally weighted portfolio. The benchmark is split 61% Australian and 39% International. Importantly, since the benchmark is equally weighted, it biases against the size and maybe the success factors compared to traditional indices. To make up for this lowering in quality, the benchmark is curated to focus on profitable companies. Another customisation is to spread the benchmark so as not to be too reliant on the resources sector, which dominates the Australian index compared to the international indices. The addition of the international stocks is quality and growth-biased to counter the lower quality Australian segment. As a long-term quality investor, I am satisfied with the composition of the index as an appropriate benchmark to compare myself against. Finally, as I have covered many times before, it is equally weighted because I don’t think benchmarks should make stock calls, and includin...
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Retail Investor preso June 2026

this preso covers 1. the structural changes to the market and what long term valuation based investors should do about it 2. valution based investing is a longer term endeavour, that is correlation between value and share prices usually take a long time, short term no signal 3. what makes a great stock and an average stock 4. then a section on what can go wrong with buying a great business. including it destroys its ROE, inflation, AI risk 5. case studies on COH and CSL 6. Choosing a fund manager 7. differences between Retail invseting as opposed to instituional investing 8. attempting to differentiate skill from risk and luck 9. lastly my largest holdings -no recommendations made i have no idea whther this works i have never uploaded a powerpoint before!!
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TECHONE FH26 new top 10 position--challenged in the apocaplyse?

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 TECHONE FH26 RESULT A soft result with FH usually being the less profitable half, plus there were the Showcase costs of $9m and FX headwinds of $1.5 m. Importantly, TNE maintained its full-year guidance and stated that it is on track, which gives the market some confidence. A big second half is implied in my numbers. Full year guidance is for 18-20% PBT growth and 16-18% ARR growth. Longer term, over $1b ARR is expected by 2030, $600m currently. Management exuded confidence, stating that the business is seeing strong momentum and is confident in its prospects. AI feedback and adoption are surpassing expectations. They have clear visibility and will deliver the step up.  TNE maintains its strategy as a specialised software provider in the local government and education sectors, with large investment in R&D and by staying close to its customers, develops successful products. Competition is described as basic and generic. TNE discounted the loss of seats as a bear case...
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A review of 13Fs Superinvestors US holdings changes in the saasapocalpyse

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  A review of 13Fs Q1 26 The 13Fs are regulatory requirements for certain fund managers that require disclosure of the US listed shares held in their funds. The disclosure is some 6 weeks after the close of the quarter. I have curated a list of 24 fund managers that most closely follow my style. That is, I am most likely to buy shares that they hold. Each fund is equally weighted and combined into a list that ranks the largest investments and movements from last quarter. (see below) Q1 26 was interesting in that it includes their reaction to the first wave of the SaaS apocalypse. Conclusion The managers have shown little stomach to take on AI risk so far. There were some signs, some quite tentative, in position-taking. The biggest moves are a large reduction in exposure to MSFT. The reasons, IMO, are that the MSFT Office suite is exposed to AI, it has also made less progress on models and chips, and finally, the OpenAI arrangement is raising more uncertainty. In fact, ele...
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VISA FH 26 Result-- Top 10 position-strong numbers--questions over the terminal value linger

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  VISA FH26 RESULT Good result with six-monthly numbers being, net revenue +15.8%, GAAP net income +22.5%, non GAAP +14.3%, operating income +19.7%. marking the strongest revenue growth for Visa since 2022. Revenue and net income for the six months were 50% and 53% of my full-year expectations, implying some upgrades to full-year expectations. The numbers are muddied a bit by litigation and regulatory provisions. Visa’s business is transforming from traditional credit card swipes on the rails to a broader range of activities. The revenue chart below shows that these new businesses fall within data processing, which is growing well above the traditional segments. Visa commented that weakness due to the ME war was more than made up for in strength in other geographies; ME comprises 6% of volumes. US spending remains firm. The result was better than management anticipated due to better demand for services, like VAS, higher volatility and flat incentives. In Q2, Visa bought back $7.9 b...
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FISCAL 2026 – THE YEAR OF ROTATION, APOCALYSE AND WAR.

  FISCAL 2026 – THE YEAR OF ROTATION, APOCALYSE AND WAR. There is little doubt in my mind that 2026 has had significant challenges, especially for my style of investing. Every style has its time in the sun and in the shade, but this year seems a bit different to the usual outcome of being out of favour every three or four years. My style, quality growth had its last difficult year, in 2022, the post-C19 hangover, when interest rates were jacked up after the Central banks kept interest rates too low for way too long, in their infinite wisdom. Fair enough, if every style continued to outperform every year, it would get overbought and overheld and preclude favourable investing. So, every style needs a clean out of the momentum guys and camp followers, etc., again, fair enough. With all that in mind, 2026 has had a bit more to it than usual, and that’s what I want to comment on here. So, 2026 is a year for the mean-reverting value guys to do well, and they have been waiting a while, ...
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GOLD STRATEGY Apr 26

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  GOLD STRATEGY APRIL 2026, Gold, FNV and WPM Summaries are from NotebookLM, sourcing transcripts, company presentations and filings; my commentary is added . Gold price The charts below, the top two courtesy of Auscap, show a story of the relative strength of the gold price. In real terms in is almost twice as high as the dramatic 1980 peak. Of course, my framework on gold is that the price is mainly determined by growth in the money supply of the major economic blocs (G3). I use M2, but I could use other definitions. M2 seems a reasonable money supply measure to follow. The theory is that over the long-term gold will follow the aggregate growth in the money supply. The time lags and correlation are not that tight, which is common in the real world. The graph below (from Gemini) shows a correlation of 0.58, which is not bad for real-world correlations, but it does imply that we should expect sustained deviations from the trend, in both time and magnitude. The red dashed lin...
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