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RMD FY26 result-- FY27 looks challenging but should be manageable

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  RMD FY26 My Thoughts The result was in line with my estimates, with revenues in line and NPAT 1% below. The result was strong, with 8% cc revenue growth and 290bp GM expansion, together with share buybacks resulting in 16% non-GAAP eps growth. There was a noticeable change in tone and narrative in Q4 commentary. RMD has become a bit more cautious and defensive compared to the confidence displayed in the first three quarters. That leads to the question: why? The exit rates do not look as good as the extrapolating full-year momentum implies. There were also some negatives in Q4, which should be looked at. The extent of the ventilator field action was disclosed as a $42m charge to repair infield ventilators and a $75m revenue headwind, as sales will cease until the full extent of the damage is known, at least a year. The management described the provisions as conservative. Although it appears very few devices are impaired, every one of them will have to be checked, is my rea...
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NCK FY26 result--Cautiously forward but forward Nonetheless

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  NCK FY26 My Thoughts The FY result was a little worse on sales but a little better on NPAT, due to better margin performance. So sales being a bit weaker were completely covered by better margin management. U/l NPAT was +22%, with group gross margins up 210bp to 65.6%. Revenues were 4% higher. ANZ revenues were 5% higher, GM 66% (65% pcp). Management appeared to target GM of 65-66% as sustainable, which is a great result. In the UK, there were mixed messages. Sales were down a little as stores were refurbished. GMs were up a lot from 47.1% to 60.3%, and 60-61% was targeted as sustainable. NCK are masters of margin maintenance. The UK reported a 2H profit, and a loss overall. Apparently, the best-selling lines in the UK are the same as in Australia, which helps product alignment, sourcing and marketing. Traffic was down, but conversions were higher, a positive indication that investments in staff quality are paying off. Like Australia, the operating environment continues to be tou...
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REA FY26 result--top 10 position -Refocussing on the core

 REA FY26 Result My thoughts The last result showed a strategic pivot and a focus on operational excellence in the Australian operations. The exit of the Indian business was a disappointment as REA was potentially positioned to be a leader in that market. To me, it shows how hard it is to replicate the positive existing scale position and Australian dynamics (such as vendor pays for marketing) in other markets. Together with the incentives and cultural biases of Australian property ownership and other supportive Government policies (immigration), the business an exceptional one. Longer-term growth is not driven by listing volumes. Taking 2006 volumes as a base of 100, the average over the last 20 years has been 102, with the highest being the post-C19 period in 2023 at 123 and the lowest 88 in 2019, with tight monetary policies and policy uncertainty. Interestingly, the GFC, which was the housing apocalypse, was not the low point in listings. That goes to show that from year to yea...
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PNI FY 26 -Top 10 position-- International building Blocks in Place

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  PNI FY 26 Result My thoughts At the high level, PNI continues to advance in broadly a consistent and positive direction. The platform now extends successfully across geographies and asset classes, which opens up a huge TAM. There were a few issues in the results, with FUM being a bit shy of my estimation (act. $229B +28%), mainly due to market movements and lower acquired FUM; flows continue to be good. Net flows were a record $33B and spread relatively evenly across Australian retail, Australian Insto and International sourcing, a healthy spread. Secondly, with the acquisition of PAM, being a wealth platform, the accounts are quite complex because PAM is an operating business more than a fund manager. That has implications for margins, growth, etc and was consolidated for a couple of months. The acquisition of 100% of PAM included a non-cash MTM in the result; the result also included losses on MTM on principal investments when seeding strategies. Complicating the analysis...
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REVIEW OF 2026 PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE -- BACK TO EARTH!

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  REVIEW OF PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE FOR 2026   The Portfolio Performance numbers are after costs, fees and taxes (paid by the SMSF and my company, which comprise about 60% of the portfolio). The Benchmark pays no fees and no taxes.  Due to the disappointing performance this year, compared to the last few years, I intend to be much more forensic in this analysis. The main issue I want to get to the bottom of was the poor performance, mainly due to my overvalued stocks coming back to reasonable valuations, or was it from poor investments, or some combination. These are quite different and require different solutions. Part of the analysis is looking at my tax awareness and attempting to cost that. Broader issues were the themes impacting the year, including AI fear, and we saw significant sectoral and style changes. The main question is whether this marks a change in the long-term outlook, or a short-term move, or is too difficult to tell. Of course, equities are the major...
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