Shawn Burns is Solve the Riddle

 HUB 24 Investor Day—the platform beyond the Platform? Hub 24 held its Investor Day, which turned into a three-hour marathon. The basic investment case for Hub24 is well known. The platform market is growing, and Hub is growing its share strongly within it. Currently, HUB has 7.7% of the market, with the leader Insignia at 19. 6%. Several times during the presentation, the CEO pointed at that number and implied that Hub should get there as a basic expectation. This story is well known. It is driven by the superior product and client engagement, getting more advisor networks on board. Secondly, by convincing advisors 1 by 1 to join the platform, and thirdly, the advisors move all their clients 1 by 1 onto the hub platform. From start to finish, this is a six-year exercise. That growth is well entrenched IMO. I assume that HUB get a share above 30% since it is only HUB and NWL that are gaining much share. There was another part to the presentation. Which was not that well known, ...

 Why do Fund managers fail? There is a guy who constantly presents at ASA meetings on active managers' performance records and points out that with all their knowledge, hard work and experience, in aggregate, returns do not make a pretty picture. That may be true but the interesting question, imo, is why. Many retail investors perceive that professional managers do what they do, look at balance sheets, listen to company calls, learn about competitive advantages, valuations etc. That is all true but fund management in the professional arena is more than anything, a business. The business part can easily outweigh the investment side in time and effort and decisions on things such as sales and marketing, product strategy, adequate resourcing, capital allocation and incentive structures can easily decide a firm's fate ahead of investment performance (in my experience). During my 35 years in professional money management, I worked at 7 firms. All no longer exist, at least in a...

 ARISTOCRAT FY24 Result —Sticking to its Strengths–top 10 holding Result Details and Operational Review The full-year result was strong driven by margin expansion across all verticals. Revenue was 5% higher and EPSA was 20% higher yoy. The revenue number was below my estimate, mainly due to acquisition timing, while the NPAT number was much higher. The second half's strength was due to operational leverage, impressive cost control and mix benefits. FX and the acquisition also assisted to a lesser degree. Everything was moving in the right direction. ALL continues to be the clear leader in the market and outspends the competition on D&D and marketing. Gaming operations added 7,100 to the installed base, a record and a strong 2H. Outright sales were mixed being flat in NA, Asia grew but Australia was lower as competition (LNW) impacted. Overall outright sales were 3% lower. The outright sales market looks to be less of an issue, especially in the NA as casinos appear to be ...

  GOLD STRATEGY Why does Gold play a part in a portfolio? From my point of view, gold has some unusual characteristics which make it appealing as part of a portfolio. Firstly, it is not correlated to the financial markets be it equity or bond markets. Finding uncorrelated sources of alpha is a holy grail in investing. Gold has been used as a source of value for a long time and is freely exchanged. In the past gold has been convertible for currency by governments and had backed their currencies. That points to its legitimacy, IMO. Gold is unlike other commodities that are either exhausted on use such as oil or coal or have large industrial uses such as iron ore or base metals that have their pricing largely driven by their usage. Almost all gold ever mined is still in use or storage somewhere. The existing pool of gold available to trade overwhelms its annual production, unlike almost all other commodities. Most gold is held as a store of value, unlike other commodities. Therefo...

  VISA—Top 10 –position—FY24 result—the Metronome Review of Result Total transactions were 6% higher at $15.7T (yoy), with the US at 5% growth and APAC negative due to weak Chinese volumes. Visa revenues were 10% higher and NPAT 14% higher. Visa revenues as a % of total payments were steady at 22bp. NPAT margin was 55% up on last year's 52.9%. Guidance for FY25 was for growth to continue at the current rates, that is, revenue growth of around 10% and eps low double-digit 12-14%. Main risks were highlighted as macro shocks, ST/MT volatility impacting the revenues/payment ratio, incentive changes and X border variations. These are usual risks and can cause some variation in returns but are usually not large (of course depending on degree). Reconciling NPAT to cash again showed high quality. 3Y and 5Y CFO was above NPAT + D&A  by 9% and 7% respectively. The Visa business model is not very capital-intensive. That is, growth continues without significant re...