Shawn Burns is Solve the Riddle

  ASML FY24 -result SUMMARY I won't replicate my earlier note on ASML, the summary is that it is a monopoly provider in EUV lithography, a critical segment of the semi-manufacturing chain. ASML is one of the five large equipment providers in the chain and one of the three “Godfathers” of AI. The business is tied to the health of the semi-industry and FAB growth and maintenance. Recently, ASML has overcome a few issues. Firstly, the newest technology is being accepted and optimised, and ASML is the lone provider. As the complexity of advanced nodes continues ASML becomes more important. Secondly, the China impact through clients' front running restrictions appears to be managed well, with the exposure normalising around a low 20% exposure. Thirdly, we appear to be back in a FAB growth era, driven by AI in which ASML will undoubtedly play a part. The gap in demand due to INTC and Samsung issues appears to have been taken up by others.  Fourthly, the services revenue, the r...

  LVMH FY24—are we there yet? SUMMARY As widely expected, a tough year for luxury but LVMH proved resilient when there were some notable failures. Possibly 2025 or 2026 will see trend growth re-establish itself after the C19 volatility.   Some negatives for LVMH in 2024 were the numerous “one-offs” impacting the results including write-downs, loss on sale, and sponsorships, detailed below. Pricing also caused some concern with the lower price increases compared with the past couple of years coming with FX volatility that made orchestrating smooth FX-adjusted price increases difficult. Price rises are now in the 2-3% range, back to normal. LVMH has a strategy to invest through the cycle, so in a year of poor revenue growth, we can expect a hit on margins. That said, cost and inventory control, as well as the balance sheet, remain very strong. There appear two significant operational issues, wine and spirits and DFS. New Management has been given two years to turn W...

  MICROSOFT FH25 result Summary There is little requirement to describe MSFT in detail, it is one of the best-known companies and one of, IMO, one of the best-unregulated monopolies in public markets. The big questions are based around is the strategy correct and is the valuation reasonable. MSFT has moved reasonably aggressively to be the main platform for AI. That goal is taking considerable capital and it is deploying into a moving feast. As that story pans out we are likely to see optimism and pessimism, to various degrees. The goal is attainable both technically and financially by MSFT, and the goal should also be lucrative for the group. MSFT is involved along the stack, with the LLM market largely through Open AI, it is also in the agent deployment with the Copilot family and is also interested in becoming the AI platform of choice. Headway is being made across all fronts. AI revenue it was disclosed is at a $13B run rate, about 5% of total revenues but growing very ...