Shawn Burns is Solve the Riddle

  GOOG 2Q 25 Result Summary—Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated Very good results, basically across the board, with search accelerating. Double-digit revenue growth with margins holding. Two areas of interest on the call were the increase in capital expenditure (capex) from $ 75 to $85B. Of course, this can be positive or negative depending on the returns generated by this capex. Management reiterated strong AI-driven cloud demand. Interestingly, increasing capex raises fears about the ability to generate returns, but cutting capex would raise fears about a lack of growth. Go figure. Secondly, concerns over the changes in how searches are occurring and whether monetisation is weakening or not. To some extent, GOOG appear to be following client usage volumes and establishing where they lie before monetising. Engagement appears strong, which is a good base to build upon. Revenues are improving. GOOG is very active in search product development and has surpassed earlier ...

 ANATOMY OF AN “F” – DMP Probably one of the reasons I didn’t do so well in the funds management industry was my penchant for examining my errors in detail. Of course, I realise that replying that “everything is awesome” would assuage clients and consultants. I do feel that everyone makes mistakes, and the best way to avoid the repetition of systematic errors and therefore to become a better investor is to closely assess what has happened, to closely look at your errors more than your successes. With that in mind, here we go. Growth investing is the extrapolation of past trends, and evidence indicates that the past success of a business is usually followed by future success until it isn’t. That is, once the chain is broken, a new paradigm may be at play. When a company misses its earnings big time, there are two elements to consider being the usual quick fall in multiples as the market reassesses the ability of the company to continue on its winning ways, and secondly, the si...

  Summary of TSMC Q2 25 results call Strong revenues and profitability growth. Better than my numbers. Some negatives from FX. Negatives for FX and dilution from new overseas fabs are expected to continue (fabs at previously disclosed rates). TSM commented that they are confident in operating metrics despite unfavourable FX-ie will hold profitability despite Taiwanese costs increasing in USD. Growth in AI-derived demand continues to increase revenues, increasing to expected +30% (I had 25%) for FY2025 and at higher valued nodes, which should assist margins. Continued positive progress on various overseas FABs is very encouraging, as is the development of further complex nodes required to advance AI. Growth in Taiwanese FABs continues as well. TSM appears to be pulling further ahead, and Samsung and Intel do not appear as real competition at this time. TSM's execution and ability to leverage their scale and technological advantages and optionality make them difficult to comp...