Shawn Burns is Solve the Riddle

  REPORT ON TSMC FY25 Summary The numbers TSMC are producing are very good, even excellent. I have analysed them below. The overriding story here is that the AI investment chain needs to succeed. That means use cases and token usage need to keep growing to fill the DCs and, in turn, TSMS’s new FABs. Data centres are the largest growth area, AI use cases require more complex nodes that are being developed, and TSMC is planning huge capex into FABs to supply the chips that will be used to satisfy this demand. The semiconductor value chain is incredibly integrated. If AI progress pauses or slips and is shown to have issues being implanted and generating ROI, the whole chain will be impacted. There are portfolio consequences for this, and this correlation must be considered. My base case is that AI will succeed, but there will be bumps in the road, maybe some large ones. Therefore, the overall exposure needs to be assessed for risk control. Notes from FY25 results. Main Point...

  ANOTHER LOOK AT THE GROWTH SELL-OFF Background My basic investing thesis revolves around backing companies that can add assets and maintain a high ROE. Adding assets while maintaining a high return propels eps higher and with it the SP. The maths is simple, the execution is not, management and investing. I do like frameworks, especially those that win, and if you can pick a company that adds assets and holds returns, while buying at a reasonable price, you will do very well. The hard part is picking those companies that can maintain returns. Investing is not easy. I’ve found buying them at a reasonable price is the easier part (takes patience). However, in my case, I find this framework immeasurably easier than finding a company that is yet to prove itself as a quality company; I find that even harder. Brief recap of proof point I've done this to death before, so it will be brief. To prove the thesis, I picked 12 high ROE companies and 12 low ROE companies. The thinking h...