Shawn Burns is Solve the Riddle

 LOV –TOP 10 Holding—FY24 Result review – all numbers were above my estimates, with sales $699m ($698m) up 17%, NPAT $82m ($75m) up 21% and stores 900 (+12%) at end of year (est 876). The result included a small impairment and a lower tax rate, adjusting for these the NPAT was circa 3-4% better, GM driven. [note these estimates are my own, not consensus, not reliant on sell side research, I assess the result with a five-year timeframe in mind (not trying to game a beat or miss). The aim is to derive a 5y eps estimate and exit PE, I do consider any guidance (if given).] My overriding assumption in consumer discretionary for FY24 was a tough operating environment. There are multiple examples globally of firms suffering at the top line and bottom line from luxury goods to QSR and everything in between. The mix of store performance (rev/store) was quite marked, which shouldn’t surprise us as much as it does. Basically weak everywhere except the US and Europe (the big drivers goin...

 HUB 24 – TOP 10 holding—"the giant slayer” Background From my start in the financial industry in the mid-1980s, I have dealt with the independent financial advisor (IFA) market, on and off for many years. My observations of that industry and its efficiency can be summed up by a saying at the time (para), “in the office at 9 am, at lunch by noon and on the golf course by 3 pm”. Of course, there are good and poor advisers. Still, the efficiency and incentive conflicts indicated that the industry was ripe for a clean-out and the implementation of modern efficient processes. With the Hayne RC came the cleanout, the end of trailing commissions, and the need for IFA’s to be much more productive to earn a living. Secondly, the technology revolution opened the opportunity for new players to digitise a predominantly manual process, cluttered by time-consuming paper forms (eg Statement of Advice) and disparate data sources. Putting these onto a single source of truth and tying the mult...

  NOTE THE NOTE BELOW IS A SUMMARY BY WoHS. Basically agree with all, it is the numbers presented well.  Love the graphs and charts, well done. I have added comments and a valuation scenario at the end.  Forwarded this email?  Subscribe here  for more Adyen: Fastest Volume Growth since 2022 Adyen H1 2024 Earnings Analysis Aug 17   Executive Summary Adyen reported Processed Volume of €620 billion in H2 2023, marking a 45% year-over-year growth, the fastest since H1 2022. Over the past five years, Adyen has achieved a compound annual growth rate of 43% in Processed Volume. The take rate decreased to 14.7 basis points in H1 2024, down from 16.3 bps in H2 2023 and 17.3 bps in H1 2023. This decline is attributed to changes in the merchant mix and Adyen’s tiered pricing strategy, which aims to extract more value from customers via its land-and-expand model. Adyen's net revenue reached €913 million, marking a 24% year-over-year increase and representing the second...

 CSL FY24—The game is not the same The result was not great but not bad either, 1% below my revenue forecast, and 2% below the NPAT line. The guidance for revenue growth is 5-7% and NPATA is to be $3.2-3.3B. The NPAT guidance implies about 12% growth but the revenue growth would have disappointed. In recent years CSL has struggled compared to the old CSL and a large part of that is the impact of C19 which made plasma collections extremely difficult and after that very costly. This was a problem for the whole industry not just CSL. There are other issues, IMO, that are causing CSL to appear to struggle to get their numbers up that seemed effortless in the past. Why? Lets go back to the basic model which made CSL such a great business and drove very strong growth and a PE re-rating. The model was that CSL could collect plasma and became very efficient at it (and still is). The processed plasma, at great expense, was then sold mainly into IG products. The process was capital inten...