Shawn Burns is Solve the Riddle

 CCP FY24 – it’s a trading stock. Companies evolve, sometimes quickly, sometimes slowly, sometimes for the better sometimes not. Once I regarded CCP as a long-term holding, a quality stock that can add assets consistently above its cost of capital. Things have changed. My classification of CCP is as a lender. The core business, in which it is the leader, was ANZ debt ledgers. The knowledge and discipline displayed by management compared to the variable competition put them in a strong position to build the business. The core debt ledger business is shrinking, I am not too sure whether it is cyclical or structural, I can make arguments both ways, but I will err to the conservative and assume structural until proven incorrect. To replace the lack of growth in ANZ debt ledgers, management has gone into the US debt ledger market and consumer lending in ANZ. I suspect the US debt ledger market is difficult, but I know ANZ's low-quality lending is a difficult business. I have no ...

 LVMH—FH24 RESULT There is little doubt that LVMH holds the most prestigious selection of global luxury brands. There are other brands, Gucci, Hermes and Chanel but LVMH is the leader. That leadership will help through troubled times, as more aspirational brands will suffer compared to brands focusing on a wealthier client base. Having said that there is one lingering issue with LVMH being the size of the demand uplift coming out of C19. The question is are luxury brands over-earning and due for a retracement or a lengthy period of low growth or is the current level of a new base to push higher? We can use 2019 as the last normal year and assess what 9-year growth rates imply for the 2028 revenues. 2019 revenues Growth rate to 2028 2028 revenues Earnings Growth $60.2B 5% $93B 1% 2023 revenues 7% $111b 5% $95.1 9% $130B ...

  Understandable business GOOGLE is the world's largest advertising company. Driven by the success of its search engine, the economics of the “pay-per-click” model and the secular shift to online advertising GOOGL has been one of the most successful businesses ever. Search remains the core product and with over 4b users, the aggregated search data generated allows GOOGl to continually improve results, drawing in more users and completing a strong competitive barrier. The drivers are the number of searches, the ability to attach ads to those searches, the click-through rate and the rate per click. The other main part of the ads business is Networks, where GOOGL runs the ad part of third-party websites, and arranges and places ads. This is a more cyclical and less strategically well-placed business, expected to lose share over time. Online ad penetration sits at 61% for the US increasing about 1% per year. Potential growth can come from ROW, as well as most searches are not monet...

Understandable business EVO AB operates a B2B model, EVO develops and sells games to casinos and other operators. The main business is Live Casino, in which EVO is a leader. The second business is games based on  Random Number Generation (RNG), or slot games. These are all delivered online. EVO operates live tables and sells the produce to its customers under various sales agreements, being a profit share, fees or a blend, EVO can badge its product with the customer's name, so white labels. Some of the customers include Entain, Betfair, Draft Kings,Hard Rock Hotel and Casino, Paddy Power, William Hill and a long list of smaller operators.  The range of customers is from niche operators to the largest operators. There is a host of smaller regional operators given the regulatory environment in gaming usually exists. The last customer announced was BET365, a big operator. EVO states that once-in customers rarely leave, which is understandable, but how many people are playing ...