Shawn Burns is Solve the Riddle

 TECHONE FH26 RESULT A soft result with FH usually being the less profitable half, plus there were the Showcase costs of $9m and FX headwinds of $1.5 m. Importantly, TNE maintained its full-year guidance and stated that it is on track, which gives the market some confidence. A big second half is implied in my numbers. Full year guidance is for 18-20% PBT growth and 16-18% ARR growth. Longer term, over $1b ARR is expected by 2030, $600m currently. Management exuded confidence, stating that the business is seeing strong momentum and is confident in its prospects. AI feedback and adoption are surpassing expectations. They have clear visibility and will deliver the step up.  TNE maintains its strategy as a specialised software provider in the local government and education sectors, with large investment in R&D and by staying close to its customers, develops successful products. Competition is described as basic and generic. TNE discounted the loss of seats as a bear case...

  A review of 13Fs Q1 26 The 13Fs are regulatory requirements for certain fund managers that require disclosure of the US listed shares held in their funds. The disclosure is some 6 weeks after the close of the quarter. I have curated a list of 24 fund managers that most closely follow my style. That is, I am most likely to buy shares that they hold. Each fund is equally weighted and combined into a list that ranks the largest investments and movements from last quarter. (see below) Q1 26 was interesting in that it includes their reaction to the first wave of the SaaS apocalypse. Conclusion The managers have shown little stomach to take on AI risk so far. There were some signs, some quite tentative, in position-taking. The biggest moves are a large reduction in exposure to MSFT. The reasons, IMO, are that the MSFT Office suite is exposed to AI, it has also made less progress on models and chips, and finally, the OpenAI arrangement is raising more uncertainty. In fact, ele...

  VISA FH26 RESULT Good result with six-monthly numbers being, net revenue +15.8%, GAAP net income +22.5%, non GAAP +14.3%, operating income +19.7%. marking the strongest revenue growth for Visa since 2022. Revenue and net income for the six months were 50% and 53% of my full-year expectations, implying some upgrades to full-year expectations. The numbers are muddied a bit by litigation and regulatory provisions. Visa’s business is transforming from traditional credit card swipes on the rails to a broader range of activities. The revenue chart below shows that these new businesses fall within data processing, which is growing well above the traditional segments. Visa commented that weakness due to the ME war was more than made up for in strength in other geographies; ME comprises 6% of volumes. US spending remains firm. The result was better than management anticipated due to better demand for services, like VAS, higher volatility and flat incentives. In Q2, Visa bought back $7.9 b...