A review of 13Fs Superinvestors US holdings changes in the saasapocalpyse

 A review of 13Fs Q1 26

The 13Fs are regulatory requirements for certain fund managers that require disclosure of the US listed shares held in their funds. The disclosure is some 6 weeks after the close of the quarter.

I have curated a list of 24 fund managers that most closely follow my style. That is, I am most likely to buy shares that they hold. Each fund is equally weighted and combined into a list that ranks the largest investments and movements from last quarter. (see below)

Q1 26 was interesting in that it includes their reaction to the first wave of the SaaS apocalypse.

Conclusion

The managers have shown little stomach to take on AI risk so far. There were some signs, some quite tentative, in position-taking. The biggest moves are a large reduction in exposure to MSFT. The reasons, IMO, are that the MSFT Office suite is exposed to AI, it has also made less progress on models and chips, and finally, the OpenAI arrangement is raising more uncertainty. In fact, eleven made reductions in MSFT, with one (Ackman) taking a huge opening position. Big tech saw net outflows, although AMZN was a winner as advancements in its chips and robotics make a clearer road for implementation internally in its huge retail operation and for external use. Having said that, the market has rotated winners a couple of times so far and may do so again. The payments sector has been weak, regarded as an AI loser, and the increase in MA is due to one fund making a new big bet. After the SP has fallen, money continues to drift from Visa.

The infrastructure layer of the AI trade, chip designers and makers, as well as the broad sweep of FAB and DC equipment suppliers, still retained favour, with ASML holdings increasing. NVDA, AVGO and TSMC are relatively steady. The infrastructure layer is currently garnering the largest profits in the value chain.

Where is the money going? Spread out with new positions in UBER, CRS, APP, VST, WAT and SYK (reappears), making the list as new entries. KKR fell off the list.

In other moves, we saw some funds taking smaller positions in NOW, SUNB, SPGI and LIN.

In the AI battleground stocks, NOW, ADBE, INTU and CRM, not much, if anything, positive, the managers remain very wary of taking on AI at this stage, except for NOW, which a couple have opened new modest positions in, so NOW and its “AI agent control tower strategy” is the one gaining some support.

I was expecting some more dramatic moves into the AI sphere from these managers; they remain overall cautious, if anything, and are diversifying modestly away from Big Tech. Even for them, it remains a wait-and-see. Only the sale of MSFT is anything you could call dramatic.

So there are a few stocks to go on the watchlist, regarding taking big positions in the vulnerable AI stocks, be careful is the message here. Reminds me of the saying, there are old fund managers, and there are bold fund managers, but there are no old bold fund managers!

Disc TSMC GOOG AMZN ASML META MSFT and V