Retail Investor preso June 2026

this preso covers 1. the structural changes to the market and what long term valuation based investors should do about it 2. valution based investing is a longer term endeavour, that is correlation between value and share prices usually take a long time, short term no signal 3. what makes a great stock and an average stock 4. then a section on what can go wrong with buying a great business. including it destroys its ROE, inflation, AI risk 5. Case studies on COH and CSL 6. Choosing a fund manager 7. differences between retail investing as opposed to institutional investing 8. attempting to differentiate skill from risk and luck 9. lastly my largest holdings -no recommendations made i have no idea whther this works i have never uploaded a PowerPoint before!! 

ok that didint work. Here are a few of the most important slides.

different appraches to invseting, i am a valauiton based investor, i look at trend following and Passive as well in the preso.



Note structural changes in the composition of the investing market. Trend following and passive are much larger. 


The basic premise of valuation investing is that share prices approach intrinsic valuations over time.

however, although true in the long term with 95% correlaiotn between earnings and share prices, in the shoter term, there is little correlaiotn, especially aorund one year, its a coin toss. 





My conclusion is that we can expect share prices to move around intrinsic valuations to a much greater extent due to passive and trend-following having little or no interest in valuations. thatmeasn have more patience and setting a wider margin around entry and exit points. 

Great companies can reinvest over a long period and deploy large amounts of capital at attractive rates of return. You need to identify these companies and not pay too much for them, thats it. 
Meanwhile, some businesses reinvest at poor or average returns and do not increase their intrinsic valuation. You can make money by timing entry and exit if the share price is well above or below valuation, but in the long term, these are usually disappointing investments. 


Finally, an attempt at identifying where excess risk or luck has driven returns. Also a dig at fund managers who turnover their portfolio in excess of 100% but claim to be valuation-based. There is little correlation between value and one year, so they are probably momentum investors in disguise. 



The other slides are interesting to me, but thsi is long enough. 

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